Retailers are warning that U.S. shoppers may soon see empty store shelves and renewed supply chain issues similar to those during the Covid era—this time due to steep tariffs on Chinese imports.
President Donald Trump recently imposed a 145% tariff on nearly all goods from China, leading many companies to cancel shipments and stop placing new orders. As a result, the number of cargo ships headed to the Port of Los Angeles is projected to drop 33% for the week ending May 10, according to tracking data per NBC News.
This slowdown comes at a critical time when retailers typically stock up for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. With orders being scaled back, there’s growing concern that product availability and variety will suffer in the coming months.
kamonrat, Deposit PhotosJonathan Gold of the National Retail Federation said businesses are struggling to plan purchases and set prices amid the uncertainty. At the current tariff rate, a $100 product could cost at least $145 in import fees—making it unprofitable to sell unless prices are raised significantly, which may turn away customers.
Forecast: Growing Product Shortages and Economic Slowdown into Summer 2025
- Early to Mid-May: Consumers may start noticing reduced product availability, particularly in aisles for imported goods such as clothing and toys.
- Mid-May to Early June: A sharp decline in domestic freight activity could lead to job losses across trucking, logistics, and retail sectors.
- Mid-June through Summer 2025: Economic conditions are projected to worsen, with the possibility of a full-scale recession and widespread product shortages becoming apparent.
- Second Half of 2025: A steep drop in import volumes—especially from China—is expected to strain inventory levels for key shopping periods, including back-to-school and the holiday season.
- High-Risk Categories: Sectors most likely to be impacted include fast fashion, children’s toys, and school supplies.
- Key Contributing Factors: The situation is being driven by reduced shipping traffic from China, canceled international orders, and mounting pressure on retailers—some of whom may be forced to shut down operations altogether.
Chinese suppliers say U.S. retailers, including Target, have stopped placing orders, leaving products like press-on nails sitting in warehouses with no expected shipments to the U.S. for the first half of the year.
If the current 145% tariffs remain, the National Retail Federation predicts U.S. imports could drop by 20% in the second half of 2025.
Items most at risk of disappearing from shelves include low-cost shoes, clothing, toys, and electronics—products largely made in China. Perishable goods like apple juice and fish are also at risk due to short shelf lives and limited stockpiling ability.
Retailers unwilling or unable to pay the high tariffs may leave shipments unclaimed at U.S. ports, potentially leading to a supply chain backlog similar to what occurred during the Covid pandemic.